Final Holdout

Draw odds

The chance of every item in every draw, and how the guarantees work.

Odds revision r3, in effect from 2026-11-12. We announce changes in the game and on this page before they take effect.

These are the odds when every item in a pool is available. Items you cannot get yet (for example a commander from a location you have not reached) are left out, and the odds of the other items go up in proportion. The Odds button on the draw screen shows the exact odds for you, before every draw.

Paid draws are not available in Belgium and Brazil. Items from draws have no cash value and cannot be traded. See the Terms of Use.

Commander draw

Cost: 300 Diamonds per draw, 2,700 Diamonds for a ten-draw.

ItemRarityChance
A whole commander (top)Legendary2.000%
5 commander fragmentsEpic8.000%
2 commander fragmentsRare20.00%
10,000 GoldUncommon20.00%
60 DiamondsUncommon10.00%
5,000 GoldCommon40.00%

By rarity

RarityChance
Legendary2.000%
Epic8.000%
Rare20.00%
Uncommon30.00%
Common40.00%

Guarantee (pity)

If you have not received a top item in 59 draws in a row from this pool, draw 60 is a top item. The count resets when you receive a top item, and each pool counts separately. The draw screen shows how many draws are left.

Draw since the last top itemChance of a top item
1st to 59th2.000% each
60th100%

Including the guarantee, about 2.847% of all draws from this pool give a top item over time (on average one in 35 draws).

Ten-draw: every ten-draw contains at least one Rare or better item. If the first nine items are all below Rare, the tenth is drawn only from Rare or better items, in the same proportions as above.

Mod draw

Cost: 300 Diamonds per draw, 2,700 Diamonds for a ten-draw.

ItemRarityChance
New mod (Legendary) (top)
“New mod”: a whole mod you do not own yet at Legendary or higher, each equally likely; the Odds screen shows how many you can get. Once you own every unlocked mod at Legendary or higher, this item gives 1,500 Diamonds instead, at the same chance.
Legendary2.000%
2 Epic mod fragmentsEpic8.000%
New mod (Epic)
“New mod”: a whole mod you do not own yet at Epic or higher, each equally likely; the Odds screen shows how many you can get. Once you own every unlocked mod at Epic or higher, this item gives 2 Legendary mod fragments instead (of a mod you do not own yet at Legendary), or 300 Diamonds if there is no such mod, at the same chance.
Epic5.000%
2 Rare mod fragmentsRare6.000%
4 Uncommon mod fragmentsUncommon26.00%
60 DiamondsUncommon8.000%
8 Common mod fragmentsCommon25.00%
5,000 GoldCommon20.00%

By rarity

RarityChance
Legendary2.000%
Epic13.00%
Rare6.000%
Uncommon34.00%
Common45.00%

Guarantee (pity)

If you have not received a top item in 59 draws in a row from this pool, draw 60 is a top item. The count resets when you receive a top item, and each pool counts separately. The draw screen shows how many draws are left.

Draw since the last top itemChance of a top item
1st to 59th2.000% each
60th100%

Including the guarantee, about 2.847% of all draws from this pool give a top item over time (on average one in 35 draws).

Ten-draw: every ten-draw contains at least one Rare or better item. If the first nine items are all below Rare, the tenth is drawn only from Rare or better items, in the same proportions as above.

Duplicates

If you draw a whole commander you already own, you get 10 fragments of that commander instead. A “New mod” from the mod draw is always a whole mod you do not own yet at that rarity or higher. If you already own every unlocked mod at that rarity, you get the replacement shown next to that item above, at the same chance, so the odds and the guarantee are the same for every player.

Free draws

You get a free draw in the tutorial, and 1 free draw per day, which resets at 4:00 AM local time (it does not stack). Free draws use the same odds and count toward the guarantee.